What's been going on

What’s been going on!

I’ve been studying for finals and doing projects for weeks now missing out on every free agency move. Here I’ll give my quick thoughts on every move starting with the tender deadline all the way to the expected Soto trade. 

Cleveland gets a new reliever

Before the 40 man roster deadline Cleveland traded with the Padres for reliever Scott Barlow. He was traded to the Padres from the Royals at the deadline to help San Diego make a playoff push. That didn’t happen and with Barlow expected to make around $7 million in arbitration they decided to move on. Barlow will fit into a late inning guy this season in Cleveland while San Diego got Enyel De Los Santos who could be a decent backend reliever on a cheaper deal in a bad Padres bullpen.

Former top prospect to the Marlins

With the new Marlins GM coming from the Rays his first move is to trade for a former top Rays prospect who hasn’t worked out. A utility player that hasn’t been able to hit whenever he’s called up but continues to hit in AAA. So far in the majors he can’t hit, has gotten slower every year, and a below average fielder. Unless the Marlins fix their shortstop problem Brujan will likely compete with Jacob Amaya and Berti for the starting spot. He’s nothing special but could turn his career around with less pressure and a change of scenery. They also got reliever Calvin Faucher who isn’t anything special either and will likely be AAA depth. The Rays in return got a 24 year old pitcher Andrew Lindsey who has only pitched 4.1 innings in the Complex League but was great in his last season at Tennessee, they also got 17 year old shortstop Erick Lara who looked good in limited at bats in the Complex league.

Yankees trade a bat to the Brewers

If you were ever on Yankees Twitter last season you would’ve thought Jake Bauers was an All Star level guy but in reality he had a 89 wRC+ and a negative WAR. With the Yankees not wanting to bring him back and the Brewers non tendering Rowdy Tellez the Brewers traded for Bauers to likely be their starting first baseman this season. When Bauers gets his bat on the ball he usually barrels it leading to a high slugging percentage but with a 33.3% whiff rate he rarely does it. I expect him to do about the same in Milwaukee next season. The Yankees got back outfielders Jace Avina and Brian Sanchez. Avina was a 14th round pick in 2021 but ever since has killed single A pitching especially with a 14% walk rate last season. At 20 years old Avina could become something in a few years. Sanchez, a 19 year old from Venezuela, only had 33 at bats in the Complex League last year but impressed with a low strikeout rate and high walk rate with good speed he also could become something in the future. Good trade from the Yankees side while the Brewers just needed at bats from somebody.

Braves make another trade

A very far fall from grace for reliever Nick Anderson. His first two years in the league for Tampa Bay being one of the best relievers in the shortened 2020 seasons helped to lead the Rays to the World Series. He got elbow surgery in 2021 ending that season and 2022 for him. The Braves took a flier on Anderson last season where he pitched pretty well until he injured his shoulder in July and never pitched again. To clear money and a 40 man spot they traded Anderson to the Royals for cash. Going to Kauffman stadium could help him as a mainly fly ball pitcher. Anderson doesn’t walk anyone and gets a good amount of strikeouts but does give up hard hits most of the time which could lead to a high slugging percentage which is what happened with his fastball last season. After another injury I’m not sure the Royals can get him back on track with him likely being the 7th or 8th inning guy but I think this was definitely a good pickup for a team needing bullpen guys.

Nola’s back of course

The first big signing of the offseason Nola goes back to the Phillies for 7 years, $172 million. There were some rumors of Nola switching division rivals and going to Atlanta but I think most people expected him to come back to the Phillies. Nola isn’t my favorite starter on the market but he fits Philly. He’ll continue making about $25 million a year into his age 37 season. About every other season Nola is either one of the best pitchers in baseball or just slightly above average. Last season was slightly above average but no matter what he’ll have a low walk rate and high chase rate. Everything depends on his fastball. In his best years like 2022 that and his sinker are almost unhittable but last year they were his two worst pitches. That scares me a bit going into his later years at the end of his contract when he’ll likely rely more on his curveball. Still a good deal for a competing Phillies team.

Reynaldo Lopez a starter?

Reliever Lopez signs with the Braves on a 3 year $30 million deal to supposedly help their bullpen. Lopex was terrible for years as a starter going up and down in the White Sox system. In 2022 they moved him to the bullpen full time where he dominated with a 1.93 FIP. Sure his hard hit rate wasn’t great and he was a fly ball pitcher but there wasn’t much to show he would get worse in 2023. Then in 2023 his walk rate went from 4.3% to 12.2%. He was getting more whiffs but hitters were barrelling his pitches, especially his slider way more. You would think the Braves keep him in the bullpen but it has been reported they want to stretch him out and use him as a starter again. He would likely become their 5th starter after Strider, Fried, Morton, and Elder. Since his move to the bullpen Lopez went from a 4 pitch pitcher to basically a fastball slider reliever but I would guess if they turn him back into a starter uses his curveball and changeup way more. As a starter both pitches were terrible especially the changeup so I have no idea what the Braves are trying to do. Obviously it's the Braves so I trust them but I like Lopez way more as a late inning reliever.

A’s get a decent pick up

Never thought I would talk about the A’s picking up a pitcher for $750,000 but they signed Osvaldo Bido after the Pirates let him go. The 28 year old made 16 appearances with 9 starts he had a 5.86 ERA and has never been very good throughout the minors. He’ll likely get a rotation spot for Oakland next season and I think he could be one of their better pitchers. He’s not a strikeout pitcher and tries to get flyouts way more than ground balls. In Pittsburgh those fly balls rarely turned to homers and in the Colosseum they won’t either. He mostly got damaged by giving up multiple singles or a ton of walks which happened a few times and raised his BB% way more than it should’ve. If he just throws his fastball less I think he could excel in Oakland.

Cardinals????

Yeah I don’t know what the Cardinals were doing with their first two signings. Getting starters Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn should make Cardinals fans cry out for help to the rest of the league. They’re already stuck with Mikolas and Matz, two of the oldest and worst starters last season. Then they add Gibson to a one year $12 million deal who is one of the most average starters in the league with a 4.13 FIP and is only known as the best innings eater in the league which the Cardinals needed without them they likely would’ve needed to start Zach Thompson or Drew Rom who aren’t ready. Looking at Lynn and his one year $10 million deal, after four really good years ever since leaving St. Louis the first time but last season he wasn’t injured and made every start yet gave up the most homers in league and was the worst pitcher last season. I just don’t understand what they were going for here. I feel like if they wanted two pitchers to eat innings there were a lot cheaper options on the market. Just two gross deals for a team still trying to compete and would’ve ruined their offseason if not for their next signing.

Mariners sell off for the first time

After a season of barely missing the playoffs the Mariners wanted to shed payroll for some reason. Some thought maybe it was a way to go after top free agents but so far they haven’t signed anybody. They’re first move was to move on from Eugenio Suarez’s $11 million deal. The D'Backs were losing Evan Longoria and in the market for a third baseman and got a pretty good one from the Mariners. Suarez had sort of a down year for the Mariners only having a 102 wRC+ and walking less. He got significantly better on the defensive side though which will help him plug into the Longoria role. Suarez has never been a hitter to have a high average or low strikeout rate but is almost guaranteed 25-30 homers a season. A really good pickup for the D’Backs who can just decline his $15 million club option for 2025 if a better third baseman comes on the market. The Mariners got back backup catcher Seby Zavala and reliever Carlos Vargas. Zavala will become the backup to Cal Raleigh after Tom Murphy entered free agency this offseason. Zavala hasn’t been able to hit at the major league level but is a very good pitch framer but at 30 years old I don’t expect him to get much better. Vargas made his debut last season and didn’t look good in only 4.2 innings. The 24 year old is a two pitch reliever with a great fastball and a pretty good slider but has barely pitched in the minors with only around 80 innings in the minors since 2020. I would expect him to go up and down between AAA and the Mariner’s bullpen this season. I still have no idea what the Mariners were doing here though losing their thumper in the middle of the order for next to nothing.

Cardinals!!!

Six days after the Cardinals already signed two starters they brought in one the biggest guys on the market Sonny Gray for 3 years $75 million. At 34 years old and in his tenth MLB season Gray had his best season yet with a 2.83 FIP and finishing second in Cy Young voting. One of the biggest reasons for this was the increased usage of his sweeper which was one of the best pitches in baseball this season. There are some concerns for this signing though with the Cardinals desperately looking for innings signing Gray goes a totally different route with him only pitching over 150 innings two times since 2018. He has dealt with a lot of short terms throughout his career as well as mental struggles in New York. He also doesn’t do anything great, he just does everything really well. He gets average in the league for strikeout and whiff rate while being slightly above average in walk rate. With having an expected FIP .8 higher than his real FIP I expect him to revert back to what he did during his Reds tenure being an above average starter but not the number one the Cardinals were looking for.

White Sox finally getting a shortstop?

For years now the Sox haven’t been able to fix their middle infield and now they’re losing Tim Anderson this offseason they’re bringing Paul DeJong to replace him. This is a typical White Sox bringing in a guy to replace Tim Anderson who’s coming off of the worst hitter season in baseball and replacing him with Dejong who got cut from the Blue Jays after they traded for him at the deadline because he went 1-44. They did only get him 1 year at $1.75 million which means he’s likely a bridge for them until the day they call up top prospect Colson Montgomery. For White Sox fans sake I hope that day comes sooner rather than later or they’ll be watching a starting shortstop who has had a below 90 wRC+ for the past 4 years. 

Tigers add to their pitching

In my opinion the Tigers made one of the most underrated signings so far by locking in Kenta Maeda for 2 years and $24 million. He came back last season after missing all of 2022 with Tommy John surgery and pitched just over 100 innings with a 4.02 FIP. At 35 years old he has become a strikeout, flyball pitcher who will work perfectly in cavernous Comerica Park. I expect Maeda to have one of his best seasons next year if he can stay healthy. A great signing by the Tiger’s who needed just one more pitcher to fit into their young rotation. 

Royals get a typical Royal

When you think of the Royals within the last ten years it is fast and great defense. They just signed utility man Garrett Hampson who meets all those Royals requirements. A guy who can’t hit at all and never has in the majors but gets his value by playing everywhere on the field while being one of the fastest players in the league. A decent player who, in limited at bats, last season with the Marlins was able to get a 101 wRC+. For only a one year $2 million contract he could excel in this role and become even better if he improves his defense to his old 2021 numbers. 

Mets gave Severino how much?

Severino his entire time with the Yankees has been known for having a ton of strikeouts and barely pitching. He made three starts in 2019, missed all of 2020, pitched six innings in 2021, finally pitched over 100 innings in 2022 and was pretty decent with a 3.70 FIP, but last season he was one of the worst pitchers in the league with a 6.14 FIP. I thought at the start of the offseason he would sign with a team like the A’s or the White Sox. A team that needs innings and could take a cheap bet on a bounce back pitcher but the Mets jumped in and signed him to a one year deal worth $13 million. Nobody thought he would get that much to become the #3 starter for a Mets team trying to compete. Severino has had an above 25% strikeout rate since 2016 but last season it dropped all the way to 18.9%. He did have a high BABIP meaning he could’ve got really unlucky but everything else doesn’t point to that. He has a massive hard hit rate and didn’t get any whiffs. His fastball, slider combo went from a great two pitches to two of the worst in the league. His homerun to flyball rate jumped up from 13.9% in 2022 to 20.9% in 2023. I’d expect his FIP to drop into the mid to high 4’s but I don’t expect him to get that much better and Mets fans will likely hate him for it.

Reds get two arms

After an impressive season last year only being three games out of a Wild Card spot the Reds were heading into a massive offseason. Last season was derailed towards the end by an injured rotation and an overworked bullpen so immediately in the offseason the Reds signed Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagan. Martinez coming over from the Padres has been both a starter and reliever in his career but Reds GM Nick Krall has said he will come into camp as a starter. For a team with a lot of young pitchers it’s great to add a quality pitcher who can give you innings no matter where he is. Martinez should work well in Cincinnati with a high ground ball rate and a low hard hit rate he should be able to keep the ball in the ballpark in the small Great American Ballpark. In Pagan’s case he will become a great late inning option before Diaz and Sims. The main concern though is his low ground ball rate of only 31.5% which didn’t matter last season with the Twins but could be a big issue in Cincinnati. Surprisingly hitter’s damage against Pagan last season were usually done on his offspeed pitches but his fastball and cutter had a more than .100 jump between the actual slugging percentage and expected slugging percentage. He’s a lot like Cincinnati’s setup man Lucas Sims but Sims gets a lot more whiffs than Pagan has. He’s going to have to tap into his chase and whiff rates that he had in 2022 if he wants to be successful with the Reds.

Wade Miley’s back

The Brewers signed back Wade Miley for next season for $7 million. For a team like the Brewers who already lost Woodruff and have rumors swarming around Burnes and Peralta being traded Miley will provide good innings on a mid 4 FIP. Miley’s known for his pitch to contact approach getting a ton of weak contact and ground balls. He’s never going to have a great FIP or WAR because of this but will be a solid pitcher wherever he’s at and has been doing that for twelve years. Great deal boring deal by the Brewers.

Texas adds to their bullpen

After an All Star season as the Padres closer in 2019 Kirby Yates pitched in 4 innings in 2020, missed all of 2021, and only 7 innings in 2022. In 2023 the Braves took a chance on Yates for $6 million and he pitched decently. He still had a 94th percentile strikeout rate but walked hitters at a 14.6% rate which isn’t normal for him. The Rangers are losing Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and Arolis Chapman this offseason meaning they’re really going to need Yates to turn back the clock to his former self. Even if he doesn’t getting the Yates of last year with a 3.23 ERA and a 4.63 FIP will be important to another successful season.

Two of the biggest rivals make a trade

Here’s something you don’t expect to hear: the Yankees and Red Sox made a trade for a player who has yelled at Yankees fans. With the Yankees desperately looking for left handed outfielders they swung a trade for Boston’s Alex Verdugo. Verdugo is a very solid outfielder who plays a decent corner outfield and doesn’t strikeout. The problem is even though he doesn't chance or whiff at a lot of pitches he doesn’t walk a lot at a below average clip. He’ll likely be an average bat with 10-15 homers in New York but New York gave up some good pitching prospects. In return the Red Sox got back three pitchers Greg Weissert, Richard Fitts, and Nicholas Judice. Weissert is the only one to make his debut and has been really good in his minor league career but below average in his 31 MLB innings. He’s a five pitch pitcher with a great slider that hasn’t got enough chases as it did in the minors. He’ll compete for a bullpen spot this spring but will likely start in AAA. Fitts is the highest rated prospect in this trade, the 24 year old former sixth round pick looked great in AA last season with a 3.92 FIP in 27 starts. He has great command with a good fastball and slider as well as a changeup that’s not great yet. He needs to cut down on the walks and get more ground balls to potentially make his debut next season. The last pitcher is Nicholas Judice, 2023 8th round pick by the Yankees out of University of Louisiana at Monroe. He has yet to make his professional debut but pitched well out of the Louisiana at Monroe bullpen with a fastball-slider combo. Good trade all around but after the Soto news I think this was a good haul for the Red Sox.

Orioles finally get a pitcher

After a surprising season last year for the Orioles it was expected they would build off that this offseason by spending big on pitching. So far all they’ve signed has been closer Craig Kimbrel. With their All Star closer Felix Bautista getting Tommy John this season they needed to add a high leverage reliever who can save games along with Yennier Cano. Kimbrel has been doing that for over a decade being one of 8 closers ever to have over 400 saves. The past few seasons haven’t been the best having an over 3.50 xFIP 4 out of the last 5 seasons. Kimbrel has had a high walk rate for years and has always given up a lot of hard hit balls but is great at striking out batters and gets a lot of whiffs on his fastball and curveball. I’d expect him to have about the same season if not better than last year with the deep walls in Camden Yards but will still not be up to par with his all time seasons with the Braves and Red Sox. At 1 year for $13 million a good deal for the Orioles needing pitching and should go get a starter off the market.

Astros get a Maldonado replacement

For years the Astros had their clubhouse leader in Martin Maldonado who was essential to their dynasty since he got there in 2018 even though he has been one of the worst players in baseball for a few years now. Last season rookie catcher Yanier Diaz was significantly better than Maldonado but Dusty Baker decided to stick with his veteran for most of the season. With Maldonado’s contract being up the Astros were in the market for a new catcher and got one in Victor Caratini. He’s a very serviceable backup catcher and does basically everything the young Diaz doesn’t do well. Diaz is really good at throwing runners out but currently isn’t good at framing well. Caratini is the exact opposite. Caratini doesn’t strike out a lot and doesn’t chase while walking at a decent rate but doesn’t hit for much power while Diaz kills the ball but chases too much and has one of the worst walk rates in baseball with a 2.9%. For 2 years $12 million this is a really underrated deal for the Astros. 

DBacks get the pitcher they need

After their miraculous run to the World Series the DiamondBacks knew they needed to add starting pitching. During the postseason they ran a 3 man rotation with Zach Gallen, Merril Kelly, and Bradon Pfaadt. All three were really good but during the regular season they got 61 combined starts from Ryne Nelson, Tommy Henry, and Zach Davies. It’s likely Henry or Nelson will get the last spot in the rotation as of now but getting an almost guaranteed 20 starts at least for Rodriguez will totally save this team and the bullpen from fatigue which is exactly what happened in the playoffs last year. Rodriguez who’s mainly a flyball and strikeout pitcher has been an above average pitcher in almost every season with a below 4 FIP in 6/8 seasons. Rodriguez doesn’t have wipe out stuff and doesn’t heavily excel at anything in particular but he has a great pitch arsenal that leaves hitters guessing and coming from pitching in Comerica to Chase Field he’ll likely put up close to the same stats he did this season having a less than to low than 4 ERA. At 4 years for $80 million it's a good deal for a team needing pitching and with little young pitching coming through the minors the DiamondBacks really need someone like Rodriguez.

Reds get a new bat

The Reds have been in the market for nearly everybody this offseason already signing Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagan already to help the pitching staff now they look towards the lineup by signing infielder Jemier Candelario. The Reds decided to add to their strength in the infield with already having rookies Elly De La Cruz, Matt Mclain, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer, Cristian Encarnacion-Strand, and former Rookie of the Year Jonathan India. Some have questioned this signing saying the Reds don’t have room for him on the roster but with Steer likely playing leftfield, CES having started playing the corner outfields last season, and the report that India will work on the outfield this Spring Training they should have the positional flexibility to get everybody in the lineup. Candelario will likely be the starting first baseman on opening day with the young Reds. After struggling for his first few seasons at the plate Candelario finally figured it out in 2020 and has been a great hitter every year since except for 2022 where he had a 78 wRC+ and got non tendered by the Tigers. The Nationals took a chance on him and he was so good that he got traded at the deadline to help the Cubs push for a playoff spot where he was an average hitter. Candelario in his best seasons kills fastballs but has always struggled against curveballs. He’ll likely be a good hitter to round out the lineup for the Reds whether that be at third, first, or DH. My only gripe is the contract for a team like the Reds with a ton of young talent giving Candelario, who’s already 30, a 3 year deal could limit the development of CES and Marte especially in the field. I think the Reds see Candelario as a stepping stone until their next wave of prospects are ready like Cam Collier and Edwin Arroyo who should be up by 2025.

Red Sox get a Gold Glover

The Red Sox made a trade with the Cardinals to bring in outfielder Tyler O’Neill for pitching prospects Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. O’Neill who has struggled on and off the field the past two seasons is getting a new start in Boston. During last season the Cardinals manager publicly said he felt like O’Neill wasn’t making enough effort and benched him only playing him in 72 games. Just two years ago in 2021 O’Neill was one of the best players in the league finishing 8th in NL MVP voting and having an over 5 WAR as well as winning a Gold Glove. He’ll likely take over in left for Masataka Yoshida who was one of the worst defenders in left last season. I’d expect him to bounce back and become an above average hitter again walking a good amount and hitting more than 20 homers in Fenway. In return the Cardinals got Robertson who has been a relief pitcher his entire minor league career and after making his debut with the Dodgers this season he was traded at the deadline to Boston for Keke Hernandez. After getting to Boston they changed his release point and dropped his changeup usage which dropped his ERA by more than 2. If the Cardinals continue to build on what the Red Sox already did with him he could blossom into a solid bullpen option. Santos missed all of last season with an arm injury but before that made it up to AAA as a 21 year old starter and pitched to a 4.17 FIP he’ll likely start the season in AAA and could make his debut this season but is projected to be more of a depth starter for his career.