Mariners trade top prospect for former All Star

After an offseason waiting for a trade the Twins finally have traded their second baseman Jorge Polanco for a haul. In return they acquired starter Anthony DeSclafani who was acquired from the Giants in the Robbie Ray traded earlier in the offseason as well as reliever Justin Topa, and prospects Darren Bowen and Gabriel Gonzalez along with cash from the Mariners to offset the Desclafani contract. This is a shocking trade for the current value of Polanco but it adds a big bat into the Mariners lineup which they’ve needed since they traded Eugenio Suarez and Jarred Kelenic. 

Mariners Side

This offseason has been a weird decision after weird decision. After coming just one game short of making the last wild card team and two from winning the division it seemed like with a young rotation and a solid lineup it seemed like they would add to the team by trying to bring in a top  free agent but instead they have traded away big contracts bats for almost nothing like Eugenio Suarez and Evan White who needed former top prospect Jarred Kelenic to be able to move while also acquiring players to bullster the lineup and bullpen with Austin Voth, Mitch Garver, Luke Raley, and Mitch Haniger so it seems they have been taking two steps back and one step forward with every other move. With this move they finally decided to take a look at their biggest hole at second base which went through a rotation of disappointing players last season starting with Kolton Wong into Tommy La Stella and ending with Josh Rojas who was acquired at the trade deadline. It looked like this Spring Training it was going to be Rojas against minor leaguer Ryan Bliss but now they add a former All Star Jorge Polanco. In his last two seasons he has changed his approach going from a hitter who strikes out little and walks little to the exact opposite a hitter who has an awful strikeout rate of 25.7% last season but having a great walk rate of 10.5% and 14.5% in 2022. Polanco has always put the bat on the ball though having a great barrel rate last season at 13.8% but he’s never consistently hit the ball hard only at 40.6% last season. After putting up a career high 33 homers in 2021 in 152 games he hasn’t played over 104 games in each of the last two seasons. His main deficiency is his defense which has been in the bottom of all infielders since he became an everytime player in 2016. In his best seasons this hasn’t hampered him like in 2019 posting a 3.3 WAR despite posting a -10 DRS and -21 OAA. In his best season in 2021, which was his last full season, he posted a 4.2 WAR season mainly by improving his power and his defense moving from short to second. All in all this is a solid pickup to the Mariners lineup in a spot they desperately needed with a team option for 2025 they have two years of control with Polanco their only problem is what they gave up.

Twins Side

Before talking about what the Twins got it must be mentioned what the Twins lost in their lineup without Polanco. A guy who was a fan favorite who spent 13 seasons in the Twins organization. With Polanco leaving a vacant spot at second their turn to Edouard Julien who filled in last season for Polanco when he was out with injury. Julien is a stud against righties but rarely hit last season against lefties. It’ll likely be Kyle Farmer a lefty killer at second when they start but Julien has the position on lock bringing power both ways and a killer eye at the plate. His only problem is whiff on pitches mainly in the zone with below average zone swing and zone contact rate. I’m pumped to see more Julien this season and even if he struggles they have prospects Austin Martin and Brooks Lee ready and waiting. 

Now to discuss what they got in return starting with their major league additions of Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa. I’ve already talked about Disco when he was traded back at the start of the month from the Giants for Robbie Ray. At the time I talked about how there was no spot for him on the Mariners roster but that with the current market he could be a solid swingman similar to what the Reds are going to get with Nick Martinez at about the same price. He’ll likely become the same in Twins bullpen to start the season. They have an underrated rotation anchored by Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez with Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson battling for the final rotation spot who are both underrated young pitchers. They’ll likely end up with two scenarios for DeSclafani either he pitched average to below average but stays healthy and becomes an innings eater or he doesn’t pitch well at all and he gets DFA’d. The main Major League get was Justin Topa, a big contributor to the Mariners bullpen in his first full season pitching in 75 games. He’s a sinker, slider pitcher who also throws in a cutter and changeup from time to time. He pitches to contact having one of the highest ground ball rates in the league at 57.4%. He misses barrels and has great control with a low walk rate. I’d expect him to regress from his 2.61 ERA and 3.15 FIP from last season and become a solid reliever in the back end of their bullpen, likely a 6th or 7th inning guy. 

Looking at the minor league return is where the main value really comes from. Starting with the lesser prospect in pitcher Darren Bowen. He worked as a starter and out of the bullpen in his first full pro baseball season last year. He was a 13th round pick in 2022 out of the University of North Carolina at Pembroke as an athletic high upside arm. He’s already 22 and spent all of last season in low A ball. He struggled with control with a 10.9% walk rate but a strikeout rate at 25.7% is promising. He has a fastball that in short outings touched 97 with a nice slider and a cutter and changeup that add variety to his pitch mix. If he can develop his changeup more and add weight and command he could become a starter but right now he projects as a bullpen piece that I might be higher on than others. I think he could really break out this year. The consensus big piece in this deal is outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez. He was just ranked as the 66th best prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline. After being signed for seven figures in the 2021 international signings and a great showing in the DSL he made his way to America and started his first professional season in 2022. He lit up the complex league but struggled at first when being called up to low A but had a solid last month that saved his statline. He started last season in low A playing in 73 games and continued his dominance with a 149 wRC+ but once getting called up to high A he really struggled. I expect him to spend all of this season in high A working on his discipline as he’s never been a high walk rate guy. He has a solid frame for his age but surprisingly the power currently doesn’t match the look. He should add more as he continues to rise through the minors but he has to stop chasing pitches. He has a great contact swing that reaches almost every pitch and plays a decent right field with an above average arm. I’d expect him to continue climbing every year through the minors and likely make his debut in 2026 or 2027 and projects as a solid big leaguer. A great addition to a solid Twins system. 

The last thing the Twins got from this deal was cash to attach to the DeSclafani contract. The Twins have come out and said that instead of using the money to help pay for the $12 million left on Declafani’s contract they are going to use it to invest in the roster. Twins fans and myself believe this means they’ll likely add another hitter or reliever from free agency. The money they’re getting from the Mariners is around $6 million so it won’t be a massive contract but there are some solid options. With Julien moving to a likely full time second base that opens a spot up at DH especially against righties. This could be opportunities for guys like Miranda and Jeffers to get more playing time but I believe there are some free agents that would be solid additions. Hitters like Joey Votto, Brandon Belt, and Eddie Rosario could be great power hitting additions to add to the order. I have seen a lot of Twins fans mention Votto as a guy they want to bring in and as Joey Votto’s biggest fan I agree. If they want to add to their bullpen players like Phil Maton, Shintaro Fujinami, or a reunion with Michael Fulmer could be great additions. 

Conclusion 

All in all this is a solid trade for the Mariners currently but could come back to bite them in the future. The Twins didn’t need Polanco as they have Julien and top prospect Brooks Lee waiting in the wings. The Mariners though really needed a second baseman and with none better than Rojas on the market and only Polanco or Jonathan India on the trade block they overpaid for the best option in Polanco. After all their moves the Mariners lineup looks really solid with their only holes being at third base with the platoon of Rojas and Luis Urias as well as the question mark of Mitch Haniger in right. With the best outcome being a great lineup with a top five rotation. The Twins lose some offense but get a better bullpen option in Topa and a guy who will hopefully stay healthy and eat innings in DeSclafani.