A Full Breakdown of the Cincinnati Reds prospects headed to the Arizona Fall League

The Arizona Fall League rosters have been released this week with a lot of intriguing prospects on each team. There are six teams full of prospects from Major League teams that will play starting October 6th. I’ll be writing an article and making Twitter posts about each team’s roster. This will cover the prospects from the Cincinnati Reds who will be on the Peoria Javelinas this fall. The team will consist of players from the Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, San Diego Padres, and Minnesota Twins as well.

Cincinnati Reds:

Johnathan Harmon RHP: The former 13th round pick by the Reds in the 2022 draft Harmon had a great 1st season in professional games in 2023. Between Low-A and one start in High-A he had a 3.90 ERA while striking out 24.3% of batters. Starting 2024 in High-A he made his first 10 starts pitching to a 4.30 ERA but was shut down and had to get Tommy John surgery. This kept him out until July this year where he made 3 starts in the Complex League to not great results before being called back up to High-A for the last month of the season. He looked great in High-A starting 5 games and pitching 22.2 innings to a 1.59 ERA. He didn’t get as many strike outs as before the injury with a 20.4% rate but he kept his walk rate down to 7.5%. Looking at his last public data from 2023 he leans heavily on his curveball that he is able to throw for a strike well. He has a sinker and 4-seam fastball that both sit in the low 90s. He struggles to throw them for strikes and it seems he left them over the zone too much. His fastball has a decent shape but not for 92 mph where it sat. I will note that he has said he can throw in the upper 90s now. It seems now that he’s figured out his command, dropping his walk rate this season. 

Luke Hayden RHP: The Reds 8th round pick in last year’s draft bursted onto the scene during the draft combine where he upped his velocity to 96 mph instead of the 93 he’d been clocked around during his time at Indiana St. This season for his first full professional one he spent it all in High-A Dayton where he started 24 games pitching 101.1 innings. He looked alright pitching to 4.09 ERA and a 5.21 FIP. His walks which haunted him in college and seemed to be under more control in his limited time in Low-A after the draft came back after Hayden walked 16% of batters this season. He was expected to strike out a good amount of hitters but only struck out 17.6% in High-A. He has a very solid pitch mix already with the fastball in the mid 90s as his main pitch. He has put more emphasis on his cutter that sits in the low 90s and has pretty good movement especially off his 4-seam. His main strikeout pitch is his slider which gets 13 inches of horizontal break and had a 45% whiff rate in college. He also has a changeup which is alright but he can throw for strikes better than his slider. It seems he wasn’t getting as many whiffs on the slider as some expected and his fastball wasn’t being thrown for that many strikes as he only had a 24.8% CSW%. He’ll look to try and clean up his command this fall. 

Trevor Kuncl RHP: After going undrafted in the 2021 draft, Kuncl went right into independent ball with Lake Erie in the Frontier League. After 3 years pitching there he spent a winter in the Mexican league and was signed by the Reds last offseason. His first season in organized ball he spent at AA Chattanooga where he pitched 50 innings out of the bullpen to a 2.34 ERA and was named as an All Star. He spent the last two years working at Driveline in the offseason and worked on his electric fastball. His fastball was clocked more than 100 mph multiple times in Indy ball. He adds that to a cutter in the low-mid 90s and a slider with great late break. He was able to get a 25.6% strikeout rate as the AA closer this year and kept his walk rate down to 8.5%. He’s able to command his pitches pretty well and fills up the zone. Could be a guy making his Major League debut in a year or two if all things go well especially if they do in the fall league.

Alfredo Duno C: One of my favorite prospects in all of baseball since the Reds signed the catcher out of Venezuela in the 2023 international signing class. He played in the Dominican Summer League in 2023 as a 17 year old and dominated with a 152 wRC+. In 2024 in his 1st season in the states Duno again hit well in Low-A with a .267/.367/.422 slash line for a 127 wRC+ but his season was cut short at 32 games after suffering a rib injury. This season during his age 19 season he again played in Low-A and dominated hitting .287/.430/.518 for a 164 wRC+. He ended up winning the Florida State League MVP just a week ago. He wasn’t just walking at a 19.2% rate compared to his 18.4% strikeout rate he was smashing balls. He had a 49.7% hard hit rate with a 91.1 mph average exit velocity. He even hit 111.2 mph at one point. The one thing that he struggles with is contact with a 30.9% whiff rate and only making contact on 71.1% of swings. He also rarely swung, only swinging at 39.4% of pitches and had the eye to rarely chase too. He’s still learning to play behind the plate because he barely played there since signing with the Reds. In the DSL he only played DH because of a hurt elbow and he only caught in 21 games in 2024 and then went down with his rib injury so this is really the first season he’s caught since he was 16 years old in Venezuela. He’s shown some potential framing and blocking but he has a great arm throwing out 25% of runners this season. He also isn’t slow around the bases like other catchers which just shows how athletic he is. In my opinion Duno has some of the best tools in minor leagues and should be ranked in at least the top 20 on prospects rankings in all of baseball. I can’t wait to see him face older competition in the fall and be in High-A next season. 

Leo Balcazar SS: After being signed in the 2021 international class Balcazar broke onto the scene in 2022 where he hit for a 139 wRC+ in the Complex League. He again started hot in 2023 in Low-A hitting for a 147 wRC+ before going down with a torn ACL. In 2024 he moved up to High-A Dayton and struggled once recovering from his ACL injury but had a good last month of the season to finish hitting .263/.295/.354 for a 85 wRC+ in 102 games in 2024. This season he again started in High-A and bounced back to almost what he was hitting before the injury, slashing .262/.333/.413 for a 110 wRC+ in 75 games. He was then promoted to AA where he still hit well, slashing .263/.349/.328 for a 100 wRC+. The one thing that didn’t return from the low minors was his ability to read the strike zone. In both his 2024 and 2025 season his walk rate that was sitting above 10% his first 3 years dropped to 3.4% in 2024 and 9.3% in 2025. He has dropped his strikeout rate significantly this season. It’s been above 22% in the past but he was able to drop it to just 13.4% this season mostly due to more contact. He was only making around 60% contact in the lower minor levels but made contact on 79.4% of swings this year. His bat isn’t what Balcazar is known for as he’s had one of the best gloves in baseball since being signed. He’s mostly played shortstop throughout his career but mostly spent AA playing second base because it seemed he was losing a bit of his quick first step after the injury. A very underrated prospect in the Reds system. 

Cam Collier 1B: Taking the Bryce Harper route to the draft Collier graduated high school early to play at a JUCO and be drafted at 17 years old in the 1st round by the Reds. After starting the season on the injured list after getting surgery on his thumb Collier has looked alright. He spent 21 games rehabbing in the Complex League and High-A before being promoted to AA where he was one of the youngest players in the league at 20. In 74 games played Collier hit .263/.377/.347 for a 114 wRC+. He was able to increase his walk rate a bit but lost what made him a top prospect. In 2024 in High-A he hit 20 homers and had 42 extra base hits, this season in his 74 games in AA with 200 less at bats Collier only hit 2 homers and had 18 extra base hits. That's a significant drop for a player that has shown above average raw power in the past especially if that player is making below average contact which Collier was this season. He also has mostly been moved from third base where he had a great arm but questionable range over to first. He’s still a good hitter but it would be great for Collier to show some more power this fall in a league that usually is a great home run hitting environment.

Thank you for reading for shorter breakdowns check out my Twitter @drew-durstock. Each day I'll release a new team's prospect breakdown.