5 Free Agents I’d Steer Clear Of

Cody Bellinger

I know he’s the best position player on the market but a lot of his stats scare me. Bellinger is expected to get 10-12 years with more than $20 million a year. The former MVP had a resurgence last year in his first year with the Cubs with a slash line of .307/.356/.525 as well as 26 homers but his predictive stats scare me. First his BABIP in 2023 was .319 while his career average is .285 meaning most stats such as his .307 batting average should decline next season. This becomes even more clear when looking at his statcast numbers. His barrel %, hard-hit %, and exit velocity were still far below league average, not even close to his MVP 2019 or even his 2020. They are far more closely related to his disappointing 2021 and 2022 which lead to him only getting a 1 year $12 million deal with the cubs. His expected stats also point to a decline all being slightly above league average. I still like Bellinger and would love him on any team but there is no way I would give him 12 years and could end up as one of the worst contracts in baseball.

Jason Heyward

The 34 year old found a resurgence last year with a 121 wRC+ after two straight seasons with an under 70 wRC+. In his first season with the Dodgers Heyward improved on everything. The most shocking part was his improved defense going from 1 OAA to 6 and becoming an elite right fielder. On every other statcast though he went from one of the worst players in the league to an average hitter in almost every category. At 34 years old and likely going away from the Dodgers hitting factory I don’t see him getting any better let alone staying an average hitter. He’ll probably be looking for a two year deal to provide some security if I was a team looking for a bridge outfielder until their younger prospects are ready like the Nationals then I would bring him in on a one year deal to prove himself again.

Kyle Gibson

The best inning eater on the market. Gibson has had over 160 innings every year since 2018 (except 2020) for multiple teams and that’s about all years good for. Gibson has only one positive pitch being his slider, doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses, and gives up a 44% hard hit rate to batters. All signs point to him being a below average pitcher but he is very good at getting ground balls and avoiding walks leading to his vast number of innings. Currently he is projected to get a 1-2 year deal at $11 million or more. If you're a team that isn’t trying to compete and has an open spot in the rotation he could be brought in to get your teams through innings but would be the most expensive innings eater in the league when there are cheaper options like Lance Lynn and Wade Miley who can do the same thing.

Tim Anderson

What an awful 2023 for Tim Anderson. After batting over 100 wRC+ for four straight seasons Anderson dropped to a 60 this season. Based on his statcast number he was never an amazing hitter like some news outlets saw him as but he was never as bad as he has been this season. A lot of teams will likely look at him as a bounce back candidate that they can “fix” but I don’t think that. Anderson only barreled up 2.9% of pitches this year one of the worst in the league, he chased at 35% of pitches one of the highest in the league, and he only walked 5% of the time. In 2022 he still barely walked and chased pitches but he was great at putting the bat on the ball and barely striking out but in 2023 he couldn’t do that at all. He’s also a below average fielder at shortstop and has been for two seasons. It’s already being reported that the Los Angeles Angels are interested which would be an awful pairing. I expect teams like the Mariners and Marlins to likely be interested as well even if there are also likely bad pairings.

Whit Merrifield

I honestly am not sure how Merrifield still has been on the Blue Jays roster over the last two seasons. A below average hitter since he got to the team that is also a below average fielder at every position he’s played. He’s a very good base runner though that could be a pinch runner for a playoff team but doesn’t deserve the almost 600 at bats that he got last season. This offseason does have a very thin market for second basemen so a team might be overpaying for Merrifield this season. I’ve seen him connected to the White Sox where he could maybe improve on a bad team but unlikely with only a 2.4% barrel rate.